BREAKTHROUGH TRACKER

Next major breakthroughs, with evidence

Each track is a timeline of real events — lab results, roadmap updates, plan markers. So you can see what already happened and what is still a promise.

11 active tracks

Forecast In progress

Lilly's In Vivo Gene Editor Demonstrates Durable Cholesterol Reduction

Lilly's in vivo gene-editing therapy achieved 62% LDL cholesterol reduction in early trials. This track monitors whether durable LDL reduction (≥50%) at 12 months or beyond is demonstrated in clinical data released by end of 2026.

Target 2026
Progress 0%

Timeline

Forecast Delayed

In Vivo CRISPR Gene Therapy Receives FDA Approval

Intellia's NTLA-2002, the first in vivo CRISPR therapy to clear Phase 3 trials, is positioned to receive FDA approval within 18 months, opening the pathway for in-body gene editing as a clinical standard.

Target 2026
Progress 0%

Timeline

  1. UT Austin's Retron System Edits Multiple Disease Mutations Simultaneously

    A new retron-based system from UT Austin closes CRISPR's biggest blind spot, correcting multiple disease mutations.

  2. In Vivo Gene Editor Cuts Cholesterol 62%

    Lilly's in vivo gene-editing therapy achieves 62% LDL cholesterol reduction in human trial, advancing non-invasive gene therapy approaches

Forecast Planned

Perovskite Solar Modules Achieve 20% Efficiency at Module Scale

Perovskite solar cells have achieved lab efficiency of 24.3%, but module-scale (>100 cm²) remains a hurdle. This track monitors whether the new 10-minute vacuum process technology achieves certified module efficiency above 20%.

Target 2027
Progress 0%

Timeline

Forecast Planned

DNA Origami Vaccines Enter Human Clinical Trials

DNA-based nanostructure vaccine platforms like DoriVac aim to outperform mRNA vaccines and enter human clinical trials by end of 2027, addressing cold-chain logistics and immunity durability.

Target 2027
Progress 0%

Timeline

  1. DoriVac DNA Origami Platform Aims to Outperform mRNA Vaccines

    DoriVac, a DNA-based nanostructure platform, aims to overcome mRNA vaccine limitations with improved immunity and cold-chain logistics.

Forecast Planned

Revolution Medicines KRAS Inhibitor Receives FDA Approval for Pancreatic Cancer

Revolution Medicines reported practice-changing results targeting KRAS mutations in pancreatic cancer — a target long considered undruggable. FDA approval is expected within 24 months.

Target 2028
Progress 0%

Timeline

Forecast In progress

Cardiac Gene Therapy Reports Positive Phase 3 Efficacy Data

After a decade of failed trials, cardiac gene therapy programs are rebounding with new treatments targeting heart failure. This track monitors whether at least one program reports positive Phase 3 efficacy data by end of 2028.

Target 2028
Progress 0%

Timeline

  1. Cardiac Gene Therapy Rebounds After Years of Failed Trials

    Heart failure gene therapy is back with new treatments targeting heart failure after a decade of high-profile stumbles.

Forecast Planned

Cas12a2-Based Targeted Cell Destruction Enters Clinical Trial

Cas12a2, a lesser-known CRISPR protein, destroys entire targeted cells on command — a fundamentally different weapon against cancer than DNA editing. Track monitors progression from lab discovery to first human clinical trial.

Target 2029
Progress 0%

Timeline

Forecast Planned

GSK Hepatitis B Functional Cure Achieves Regulatory Approval

GSK's experimental hepatitis B drug achieving a functional cure rate of roughly 20% targets regulatory approval. This would represent a breakthrough in a field where current treatments almost never cure patients.

Target 2031
Progress 0%

Timeline

Forecast In progress

Commercial Fusion Plants Deliver Grid Electricity

Private fusion companies demonstrate net electricity generation and grid interconnection before 2035, with Commonwealth Fusion Systems and others meeting grid connection requirements.

Target 2035
Progress 0%

Timeline

Kuenstliche Intelligenz In progress

AGI by Defined Test

Which AGI definitions count as passed today, which not?

Target 2035
Progress 25%

Timeline

  1. GPT-4 passes standardised exams

    Bar exam, GRE, AP tests in the top percentile; but no open real-world test.

  2. ARC-AGI: models reach 60%

    First models with significant lift, still far from the 85% threshold.

Fusionsenergie In progress

Fusion: Net Energy Gain

Tracking every verified Q>1 result on the path to commercial fusion energy.

Target 2040
Progress 35%

Timeline

  1. NIF achieves Q>1 (short pulse)

    First lab-confirmed net energy gain over a few nanoseconds.

  2. NIF repeats Q>1

    Reproducibility confirmed; still far from a power plant.

  3. First private demo announced

    Commonwealth Fusion and TAE Technologies announce demonstration plants for 2027.

  4. Commonwealth Fusion Systems Files First Grid Connection Request

    Commonwealth Fusion Systems has filed a formal grid interconnection request with PJM — the first company to reach this milestone.